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* In Focus, No. 42, Spring 2002, London The global tourism industry was supposed to become another casualty of the September 2001 terrorist attacks against the United States. Analysts worried that airline groundings, hotel layoffs, and empty beaches would spell doom for a sector that, by one estimate, brings in more than one tenth of the world's gross domestic product (GDP). But just over one year later, this doomsday scenario has largely failed to materialize. In 2001, international tourist arrivals dropped by only 0.6 percent, to 693 million. International tourism revenues contracted by 2.6 percent, but even this decline was well below most expectations.
This result would seem like good news for developing countries, which have increasingly come to rely on tourism as a key to economic growth. For the world's 49 least developed countries, mainly in Africa and Asia, tourism is one of few ways to participate in the global economy. In some small-island destinations, including the Maldives, St. Lucia, and Macao, tourism now brings in more than 40 percent of GDP. The return to business as usual would appear to be nothing less than a godsend.
Not according to Tricia Barnett, director of the United Kingdom-based nonprofit group Tourism Concern. Writing in the Spring...