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As the United States continues to prosecute the Global War on Terrorism, or GWOT, it must ensure that all of its resources are used in the most effective manner possible. The effective application of these resources can be achieved by linking strongly rooted and strategically sound modeling for counterinsurgency, or COIN, with an effective method for implementation similar to that used by Joint Task Force 510 and the 1st Special Forces Group in the Philippines during the initial evolution of Operation Enduring Freedom-Philippines, or OEF-P.
Prior to 2002, Basilan Island was a safe haven for the Abu Sayaf Group, or ASG, a terrorist group that used kidnapping, rape and murder as a means of controlling the island. In early 2002, U.S. special-operations forces1 of JTF-510, led by Soldiers from the 1st SF Group, conducted operations through, by and with forces of the government of the Republic of the Philippines, or GRP, which ejected the ASG from the island.
In early 2004, more than a year after all U.S. forces had withdrawn from Basilan Island, the ASG had virtually ceased operations on the island.2 After visiting the southern Philippines, noted author Robert Kaplan pointed to the work done by JTF 510 on Basilan Island as a superior example of successful counterinsurgency.3
Strategic COIN modeling
There are many strategic theories related to insurgency and counterinsurgency that, while academically stimulating cannot be applied effectively. Likewise, there are countless tactical remedies for dealing with insurgent warfare that are not strategically grounded. The tactics must be implemented through strategic COIN modeling in order to avoid squandering the increase in national-security spending the U.S. has undertaken since 9/11.4
During Operation Iraqi Freedom II, or GIF II, Colonel Hector Pagan, the commander of the Combined Joint Special Operations Task Force-Arabian Peninsula, or CJSOTF-AP, had the insight to use strategic modeling to develop ground-truth awareness of the insurgent situation and to pass COIN recommendations based on these models to his higher headquarters for use in theater.
The Naval Postgraduate School's Department of Defense Analysis, which is home to some of the world's most brilliant minds in unconventional and counterinsurgent warfare, teaches many strategic COIN models. Several of those models were used during OEF-P and OIF II. Understanding those models will allow the U.S....