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As it moves away from communism, China's strategy is to use such forces as advanced missile batteries, diesel submarines, and Russian-built destroyers to dominate the Asian region. The United States must manage this potential threat by maintaining a military presence and creating stronger regional alliances.
In 1900, Alfred Thayer Mahan wrote: "If the advantage to us is great of a China open to commerce, the danger to us and to her is infinitely greater of a China enriched and strengthened by the material advantages we have to offer, but uncontrolled in the use of them."1
Now Mahan's worst fears are coming true. A resource rich, yet politically insular, China is the central problem of Asia. Those who dismiss China's military as "hollow" because it lacks superpower characteristics are missing the point.2 Beijing is channeling its defense resources to employ capabilities in ways that will allow China to dominate the region by intimidating its neighbors while undermining U.S. presence, access, and influence.3 China's intent is to resolve the conflict with the United States over whose values will influence the course of Pacific history.
The value differences between China and the United States are not just a product of cultural misunderstand-ings. Like the radical Islamic leaders of al Qaeda and the Taliban, Western values and democracy are what many Chinese leaders fear most.4 China's rulers envision Asia's future as characterized by Chinese dominance, with every Asia-Pacific neighbor serving as a de facto tributary state.5
China's strategy to diminish U.S. influence and presence in the Pacific is threefold: undermine U.S. alliances through unfettered maritime intimidation; push a further withdrawal of U.S. forces from Asia; and take advantage of stretched U.S. resources that have resulted from our troubles in the Middle East.
Avoiding disaster requires us to better manage the problem of Asia by abandoning strategic ambiguity, declaring clear policy intentions, maintaining a strong U.S. Pacific presence, and cultivating an Asian maritime alliance to collectively oppose China's strategic ambition.
The Problem of Asia
Four decades of steady movement toward free-market economies and democratic governments is now being threatened by an awakened dragon. China is at an economic and political crossroads. It is plain that Chinese communism soon will follow its Soviet brother to the ash heap of history....