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Some advances in non-linear and adaptive modelling in time-series
Tiao, George C, Tsay, Ruey S. Journal of Forecasting. Chichester: Mar 1994. Vol. 13, Iss. 2; pg. 109, 23 pgs
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Abstract (Summary)

Some recent developments in nonlinear and linear time-series analysis are considered. Both theoretical results and empirical comparisons are used to demonstrate that substantial improvement in forecasting accuracy can be obtained via adaptive forecasting. The adaptive forecasting method has certain advantages. For example, the procedure is extremely simple to apply. In addition, the adaptive method can be readily extended to forecasting linear aggregates of future observations. The user simply estimates the parameters of an assumed model by minimizing the sum of squares of the forecast errors with respect to the linear aggregates of interest. Such an adaptive approach would, in general, stretch the usefulness of an assumed model and link more closely the problem of parameter estimation to loss function and local approximation in statistical modeling.

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Indexing (document details)

Subjects:Time series,  Economic models,  Economic forecasting,  Bayesian analysis,  Applications
Classification Codes9190 United States,  9130 Experimental/theoretical treatment,  2600 Management science/operations research,  1130 Economic theory
Locations:US
Author(s):Tiao, George C,  Tsay, Ruey S
Publication title:Journal of Forecasting. Chichester: Mar 1994. Vol. 13, Iss. 2;  pg. 109, 23 pgs
Source type:Periodical
ISSN:02776693
ProQuest document ID:586591
Text Word Count8386
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