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Outliers, Level Shifts, and Variance Changes in Time Series
Tsay, Ruey S.. Journal of Forecasting. Chichester: Jan-Mar 1988. Vol. 7, Iss. 1; pg. 1, 20 pgs

Abstract (Summary)

Unified methods for detecting and handling outliers and structure changes in a univariate time series are proposed. The additive outlier and the involvement outlier are considered. Level shifts and variance changes are allowed, with level shift further classified as permanent level shift or transient level shift. A unified treatment is achieved by adopting a parametric approach to describe the exogenous disturbances. Under the parametric model, a disturbance's impact is measured by a parameter that can be estimated and tested under certain mild conditions. Two iterative procedures to detect and handle outlier and model changes when the number and time points of disturbances are unknown are recommended. These procedures, based on that of Chang (1982), consist of specification, estimation, detection, and removal cycles to handle one-by-one the most significant disturbances. The effectiveness of the methods is illustrated by analyzing 3 real data sets.

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Indexing (document details)

Subjects:Variance analysis,  Time series,  Statistical methods,  Procedures,  Mathematical models
Classification Codes9130 Experimental/theoretical treatment,  2600 Management science/operations research
Author(s):Tsay, Ruey S. profile
Publication title:Journal of Forecasting. Chichester: Jan-Mar 1988. Vol. 7, Iss. 1;  pg. 1, 20 pgs
Source type:Periodical
ISSN:02776693
ProQuest document ID:586221
Document URL:

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