This paper examines the dynamics of the secession. In particular, it asks why political actors decide to withdraw from the political center, how they go about it, and what makes the effort successful. The process is examined from the perspective of elite circulation. It is hypothesized that the impetus for successful secession is the contraction of mobility options. This contraction encourages elite aspirants in the periphery of a state to defect from the approved career path and become a counterelite. This counter-elite attempts to mobilize the peripheral masses on the counterelite's behalf by using a secessionist counter-ideology which is attractive to the masses yet not cooptable by the ruling elite.
For secession to be successful, it is further hypothesized that there must be a second counter-elite in the center of the state. This second counter-elite attempts to mobilize the center's masses on the second counter-elite's behalf, using a non-cooptable ideology which is compatible with the secessionists. Because the counter elites have a common enemy in the center's elite and have complementary ideologies, the two cooperate to seize power. When the second counter-elite takes control of the state from the old elite, it permits the peripheral counter-elite to secede.
This theory is used to analyze the unsuccessful secession in the United States, and the successful secessions that occurred in the USSR and Ethiopia. The theory is also applied to Belgium, where secession has been avoided despite the existence of a linguistic cleavage. It is concluded that a contraction of mobility options serves as the spark for secession and that mobilization of the masses serves as the mechanism. Most importantly, it is concluded that successful secession requires the rise of a counter-elite in the center whose base of power is in the masses, not the institutions of the state. Since the counter-elite's base of power is separate from the institutions of the state, it is easier for this center counter-elite to accept the diminution of those institutions through secession.
