The loss of undergraduates during their first year of study, has enjoyed much attention. Despite programmes introduced by universities, attrition remains high.
Evaluation of the admission system indicated that scholastic achievement alone was inadequate as a predictor of success, and that additional criteria were essential.
The question of additional factors playing a role in determining first year university success, arose.
Analysis of the Application form indicated that six factors could be regarded as reliable for addressing high attrition among First Time Entering Undergraduates. These were Gender, Age, Geographic Origin, Previous Years' Activity, Home Language and Race.
The academic records 19 913 First Time Entering Undergraduates over the of period 1987-1991 were examined and classified into six Sub-groupings comprising the Generic Pool, Passing Students, Returning Students, Partial Failure Students, Full Failure Students and Drop-outs. The factors were applied to each Sub-group, and the influence on first year success examined.
The study found that female undergraduates were more likely to be successful than males by a margin of 3:2.
Eighteen year old students comprised more than two thirds of the more successful Sub-groups, but less than half of the Failing, and approximately half the Drop-out Students. Significant proportions of Failing and Drop-out Students were older than eighteen.
Analysis of the Geographic Origin was inconclusive, although some geographic regions showed distinct tendencies that warrant additional investigation.
Home Language analysis indicated an increased risk where the First Time Entering Undergraduates did not have Afrikaans as home language.
The previous year's activity was significant. Over three quarters of the more successful students were in matriculation classes the year prior to study. Among Failing students this proportion declined to below two thirds. Students involved with Military Service or had been employed the previous year featured more prominently among Failing and Drop-out students.
The study found that students not classified as Whites were more likely to be unsuccessful.
The study concluded that four of the six factors were of value in reducing attrition. These could be maximised in conjunction with other factors such as scholastic achievement.
The need for further research was noted.
