The primary purpose of this study was to undertake an ex-post evaluation of the external efficiency of post-school technical education institutions in South Africa for the period 1975-1984. Such a study was deemed important as the expansion of Technikon and Technical College education has become the focal point of attempts to overcome extensive shortages of artisan and technical manpower reported by national manpower surveys. As vocational education is typically very costly to provide and the opportunity cost of capital in South Africa is high, the study provides a preliminary assessment of the social costs and public benefits derived from such education. Economic return estimates were calculated from national census data through the application of the NPV formula. This method was chosen rather than the internal rate of return because of unusual, but significant, fluctuations in age earnings profiles. Adjustments were made in the estimates for differing probabilities of employment and survival among the four officially categorized racial groupings in South Africa; for sex grouping; and for geographically disparate wage structures. Social benefit estimates were derived from adjusted earnings data obtained from legislated Minimum Wage data. Social cost estimates were obtained from budget estimates of public training institutions adjusted to include the costs incurred by high repetition and dropout rates. The obtained NPV estimates reveal changing trends in social returns over the decade reviewed. The returns to academic secondary schooling exceeded those for Technical College and Technikon education across all race groups. Social returns to Technikon education varied by the level of public subsidy accorded to training institutions for each racial group. The higher subsidy of white and, more recently, black Technikon training resulted in low returns and indicates the need to review existing plans for the continuing rapid expansion of Technikons. Estimated social returns to Technical College education were low in all cases and were negative for some groups. The study concludes with a broad discussion of the trends and patterns reflected in the obtained NPV estimates and suggests appropriate policy revisions in the light of the study's findings. (Copies available exclusively from Micrographics Department, Doheny Library, USC, Los Angeles, CA 90089-0182.)
